12/29 VIOLENCE TIJUANA GABINETE DE COMMUNICACION ESTRATEGICA (GCE)

The GCE Team:




It is no secret that according to the Institute of Latin American Studies at Colombia University from 2009 that "...crime in multiple forms has become one of the key issues in public life in contemporary Mexico. The country has witnessed a spectacular increase in organized criminal activities throughout its territory...insecurity and police corruption have become central public concerns." In two years, have matters improved, stayed the same, or degenerated and how exactly do the Mexican people feel about the issue of insecurity? Has the issue become passe, are people in general to be considered alarmists, and what impact will the issue of insecurity have on the upcoming elections, will the fear factor be manipulated ?


AFN reported that it is insecurity which is on everyone's lips these days and compared it to a ghost who runs (I wonder if they meant haunts) the nation north to south and east to west. A current survey made by the Gabinete de Communicacion Estrategica (GCE) - reports that the major concern of people from 61 Municipalities throughout Mexico is insecurity and crime, followed by concern over unemployment and then public services with the exception of La Paz where the major concern is over water scarcity then insecurity followed by unemployment:


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The Gabinete de Communicacion Estrategica (GCE) according to their website, specializes in public opinion surveys using state of the art research services. They describe themselves as a research team who is responsible for improving and constantly updating research tools based on the latest findings and international trends in public opinion research. Using integrated communication strategies, GCE monitors governments, performs positioning surveys, is a diagnostic tool for election polls, conducts assessment surveys of government, utilities and public policy:


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But are they in reality a political tool? Last March according to CNN, both the PAN and the PRD parties accused the PRI and the polling firm GCE of attempting to manipulate the public consultation on a possible PAN-PRD alliance in last July's election in the State of Mexico. Further, leaders of both the PAN and the PRD stated in a press conference that GCE publishes surveys which are biased in favor of the PRI. In the case of the alliance of the PAN and PRD last July, GCE actually had a call center denouncing the proposed alliance. And, Luis Sanchez Jimenez accused the PRI Governor Enrique Pena Nieto (favored to be in the GCE current polls the next Presidente of Mexico)and the GCE of intervening in the elections and filed a complaint against them: (google in title if URL doesn't come up)

Mexico CNN:

El PAN y el PRD acusan a encuestadora de boicotear su consulta en Edomex


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In this report from Noticias Zona Centro, GCE is branded an "electoral strategy of deception" regarding their poll placing the PRI candidate for the governorship of Veracruz twenty points above the PAN candidate: (again sorry you'll have to google in the title)

Noticias Zona Centro:

Presenta (GCE) encuesta manipulada a favor de Javier Duarte de Ochoa


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The complaints against GCE go back through the years linking GCE as a contract component of Grupo Milenio and Televisa who subsequently publish GCE's reports. Further it is two ranking members of the PRI who manage GCE; Liebano Saenz who was the Private Secretary to former PRI Presidente Zedillo and Frederico Berrueto Pruneda who is the nephew of Eliseo Mendoza former PRI Governor of Coahuila who also worked in public offices in Mexico City.


In 2010 GCE was a relatively new company which worked with the political marketing device Televisa, offering advertising packages to politicians, strategic advise and surveys by the company and Berrueto Saenz and in return depended on the Televisa executive committee to negotiate the ballot boxes with the politician Alejandro Quintero.


Initially GCE began conducting surveys which were published by Milenio TV and in their newspapers. There was a falling out at Milenio with Maria de las Heras who represented the Demotecnia Company also working for Milenio. Shortly after the appearance of GCE, Maria de las Heras resigned her position with Milennium citing GCE as conducting unprofessional surveys in turn making Demotecnia look bad to even be associated with them. According to Maria de la Heras, GCE were terrible interviewers seeking to protect their interests. This article goes on to accuse GCE of lack of professionalism and ethics and notes other polls conducted by GCE which favored PRI candidates. Additionally, some believe the managers of GCE pave the way for electoral fraud. Another polling company this article mentions is the Wilsa Company, who in the author's view are scoundrels just as GCE is.


Gabinete de Comunicacion Estrategica y Televisa complices
por, Luis Jorge Montalvo

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The only fly in the ointment however was the more recent poll conducted last October by GCE which put Luisa Maria Calderon Hinojosa (PAN) as in the lead of the Michoacan elections. The outcome was of course, she lost - but was GCE using reverse psychology to insure her defeat?

From Grupo Formula:

PAN encabeza preferencia en Michoacan con 39%: GCE
con Denise Maerker


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Finally but surely not the end to this story, the article from Jenaro Villami which states there is the perception that the PRI and especially Enrique Pena Nieto have established trade agreements with Televisa which would benefit them in the polls. Mexico WikiLeak 09Mexico212, written in 2009 by the analyst Leslie Basser of the U.S. Embassy in Mexico said that Enrique Pena Nieto paid "...under the table to the media in exchange for favorable coverage and financing to pollsters."

Encuestadoras y Televisoras
por, Jenaro Villami


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The issue of insecurity is hardly passe in our area, it is true that our zone has seen improvements despite the twenty eight executions and shootings in the past ten days. (I'll update those later for you Doubting Thomases) Still, the question remains are we now seeing the political manipulation of current events to benefit a political party without providing solutions for disordered social conditions? Who in this case would you say the "alarmists" are?




Here are the links:


Zeta Tijuana : A note on 12/29 - someone has done a search for the latest edicion de Zeta. I haven't picked up this weeks, will do tomorrow in Rosarito, last weeks was "Los Hombres de "El Chapo" en BC", and on line Zeta is continuing to run the story I think on purpose of the numbers of people killed in the drug war (sixty thousand plus).

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AFN

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FRONTERA

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EL MEXICANO

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Noticias Ensenada.net - Ensenada News

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Encuentro29.com - Mexicali News

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Mundo Narco

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LA Times

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